Data

Biggest odds moves

Polymarket data as of Nov 11, 2026, 04:26 UTC

The largest 24-hour move: Fed Decision in January? (25 bps increase), up 30 points to 48%.

Markets on politics, geopolitics, the economy, technology, and business with at least $15K traded in 24 hours and $5K of liquidity. Contracts priced under 2% or over 98% are left out because small trades move them.

Last 24 hours

Market	Now	Move	24h volume
Fed Decision in January? 25 bps increase	48%	+30 pts	$184K
Fed Decision in January? No change	52%	−27 pts	$178K
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	13%	−22 pts	$355K
Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027? Pete Hegseth	15%	−21 pts	$52.1K
Next Prime Minister of Sweden Magdalena Andersson	48%	+17 pts	$46.1K
Fed Decision in March? 25 bps increase	54%	+17 pts	$18.6K
Which company has best AI model end of 2026? Anthropic	21%	−16 pts	$28.8K
Fed Decision in December? No change	4%	−15 pts	$2.3M
Next Prime Minister of Sweden Ulf Kristersson	50%	−15 pts	$32.6K
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec) Hike–Pause–Hike	96%	+15 pts	$25.6K
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec) Hike–Pause–Pause	4%	−13 pts	$27.4K
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	96%	+13 pts	$231K
Which company has the best AI model end of November? Anthropic	15%	−12 pts	$51.0K
Which company has the best AI model end of November? Google	82%	+12 pts	$32.3K
Which company has best AI model end of 2026? Google	70%	+11 pts	$36.7K
Fed Decision in December? 50+ bps increase	11%	+11 pts	$2.0M
Largest Company end of December 2026? NVIDIA	14%	−8 pts	$55.1K
US imports Russian diesel by...? January 31	12%	−8 pts	$47.2K
Largest Company end of December 2026? Apple	83%	+8 pts	$27.1K
Next Press Secretary announced by...? December 31	71%	−7 pts	$38.9K

Last 7 days

Market	Now	Move	24h volume
Largest Company end of December 2026? NVIDIA	14%	−49 pts	$55.1K
Largest Company end of December 2026? Apple	83%	+47 pts	$27.1K
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? November 30	85%	+42 pts	$109K
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? November 22	91%	+41 pts	$65.6K
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? November 15	97%	+38 pts	$249K
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? December 15	79%	+38 pts	$59.6K
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? December 31	69%	+34 pts	$108K
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? SpaceX	95%	+30 pts	$69.2K
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? Anthropic	5%	−25 pts	$52.5K
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	13%	−25 pts	$355K
Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027? Pete Hegseth	15%	−25 pts	$52.1K
Next Prime Minister of Sweden Ulf Kristersson	50%	+25 pts	$32.6K
Discord IPO Closing Market Cap No IPO by December 31, 2027	87%	+25 pts	$21.3K
Fed Decision in January? 25 bps increase	48%	+23 pts	$184K
Iran full airspace closure by...? November 30	9%	−23 pts	$18.5K
Next leader out of power before 2027? Netanyahu - Israel PM	35%	+22 pts	$72.0K
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec) Hike–Pause–Hike	96%	+22 pts	$25.6K
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	96%	+21 pts	$231K
Fed Decision in January? No change	52%	−21 pts	$178K
Fed Decision in December? No change	4%	−20 pts	$2.3M